Mexico could be facing a new phase of photovoltaic expansion , although much of its speed will depend on how the new General Administrative Provisions (DACGs) are defined, which will finalize the translation of the new regulatory framework into the concrete operation of the market. This was stated by Manuel Gómez Herrera Lasso, executive director of the Mexican Photovoltaic Industry Association (AMIF), in an interview with Energía Estratégica.
This expectation carries more weight given a benchmark already circulating within the sector: reaching 5 GW of distributed generation by 2030. According to the Mexican Photovoltaic Industry Association (AMIF), favorable regulations could allow for a considerably faster pace of expansion than that recorded so far.
“ If the DACGs are favorable, we will surely see growth of that magnitude. It is much faster growth than what we have experienced; welcome growth ,” Herrera Lasso stated.
This scenario is unfolding as large-scale projects once again attract capital. Recent joint and private calls for proposals closed with over 6 GW of capacity at stake , portfolios submitted by international developers, and a technical process still underway to determine which initiatives will move forward.
However, the space that AMIF is observing has a different logic. The association is primarily linked to distributed generation , but it now identifies a new area for expansion between that segment and utility scale: self-consumption.
The new space between distributed generation and large scale
The new framework proposes that distributed generation can reach up to 0.7 MW , while self-consumption is presented as an alternative for larger-capacity projects. According to Gómez Herrera Lasso, this latter segment is projected, in general terms, from 0.7 MW to 20 MW , although he notes that there is no real limit in those terms.
The key feature is that electricity is generated at the point of consumption , reducing the need to use the grid to transport that production to another location. The system can be implemented in either grid-connected or isolated configurations. In grid-connected projects, the regulatory intent mentioned during the interview aims to prevent the injection of surplus energy.
“ That opens up many horizons for the industry in general, not only for large-scale projects, but also for distributed generation projects, many of which are preparing to tackle these larger-scale projects ,” the executive said.
This transition is also beginning to be reflected in the profile of companies approaching the association. Financing is emerging as one of the most concrete signs of interest in the market .
“ The number of financial companies affiliated with AMIF has grown significantly. And that denotes a very interesting disposition in that regard ,” the executive highlighted.
This data is relevant because the expansion towards higher capacity self-consumption systems and storage solutions introduces higher investment costs, different contractual structures and a greater need for capital than traditional residential or commercial distributed generation.
Storage, net metering and professionalization: the other fronts
Along with DACGS and self-consumption, energy storage is among the issues capturing the attention of the Mexican market . The combination of batteries and photovoltaics could gain traction in new developments by enabling better management of the energy produced and adapting systems to different regulatory and consumption patterns.
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Growth, however, will not depend solely on how many projects secure capital. AMIF identifies the professionalization of companies and staff training as one of the main challenges of the next phase .
“ We are fighting hard for the DACGs to establish the requirement to have certifications of labor competency standards ,” Gómez Herrera Lasso said, referring to the provisions that the sector is expecting.
Beyond the acronym error present in the oral expression, AMIF's proposal points to the fact that the personnel in charge of installing photovoltaic systems are properly qualified and that this condition is part of the requirements to complete an interconnection.
“ Now the challenge is to have enough companies to meet that demand, for companies to become increasingly professional, and that is what we are also working on, professionalizing the industry ,” he said.
He emphasized: “ Distributed generation has continued to grow significantly, despite the pandemic, despite moments of uncertainty due to policies that did not directly affect distributed generation, but generated uncertainty .”
The next challenge will be adapting to the final rules. Among the aspects that might require adjustments is net metering , whose eventual redesign would necessitate a review of the technical and economic configurations of the projects.
“ If there were changes to the net metering scheme, we would have to see how we adjust our own designs, our own systems, to ensure it remains a thriving business ,” the CEO explains.
With the Electricity Sector Law and its regulations now forming the general framework , the industry's attention is shifting towards the provisions that will translate those rules into concrete procedures.
Therefore, for AMIF the question is not only whether the Mexican photovoltaic market will continue to grow, but at what speed it will be able to do so, under what standards, and which companies will be prepared to capture that new demand .
“ There is much to be done to prepare companies for this new wave of demand that is coming,” concluded Gómez Herrera Lasso.
The combination of more than 6 GW in competition within the utility scale universe, a reference of 5 GW of distributed generation towards 2030 and the emergence of self-consumption as a new business space thus configures a Mexican solar market with different simultaneous expansion fronts.
For the distributed generation industry, DACGS appear to be the missing piece in understanding the true speed of this growth . Capital is showing interest and companies anticipate new opportunities; now, regulatory definition will determine how and under what conditions this growth can be captured.