The new long-term tender PEG-6 is beginning to define which technologies have the best chance of winning Guatemala's next supply contracts. And the scenario is considerably different from that of its predecessor.
Resolution CNEE-323-2026 establishes the Terms of Reference for contracting up to 600 MW of Firm Demand , for periods of up to 15 years and with supply starting on May 1, 2032. The requirement will be divided into two segments: 450 MW for new plants and 150 MW for plants that are already operational .
The first division introduces the most significant change for developers. The 450 MW allocated for new generation can only be contested by natural gas and geothermal projects, and will require installations based on synchronous machines that contribute rotational inertia to the system.
“The possibilities for renewables are shrinking,” summarized Edgar Grotewold de León , a lawyer specializing in Energy Law and Electricity Sector Regulation, in an interview with Energía Estratégica . In his view, the plan seeks to correct the composition resulting from the previous process and add resources capable of delivering energy consistently.
The contrast with PEG-5 helps to put the change into perspective. That tender sought up to 1,400 MW of guaranteed power and ended up with 1,258.39 MW of guaranteed power allocated from 2033 onwards , within a phased supply scheme that begins in 2030. In the process, 48 companies were deemed technically sound and 57 power plants were ultimately awarded.
Furthermore, renewables played a significant role. According to information gathered by EEGSA after the awarding of the contract, approximately 73% corresponded to renewable technologies , including solar projects and configurations incorporating battery storage.
For Grotewold, that outcome explains much of the subsequent shift. “PEG-5 was designed in such a way that gas-fired power plants could compete with solar plants with batteries,” he noted. He explained that the result was a significant increase in the number of solar and solar-with-storage projects being contracted. In his view, the new call for bids seeks to complement this increase with generation capacity that will provide greater stability to the system.
The 90% that changes the competition for the other 150 MW
The second block, of 150 MW, seems at first glance more open: plants that are already commercially enabled in the Wholesale Market can be submitted, without an express exclusion by resource.
However, another condition arises that changes the actual possibilities for each technology. The Terms of Reference establish a minimum capacity factor of 90% continuously , regardless of hydrological, climatic, or operational conditions. Furthermore, they require that bids support the firm energy associated with the guaranteed power capacity for all hours of each supply year.
Grotewold's legal analysis interprets this condition as also applying to Block B. This does not mean that an existing solar or wind power plant is automatically excluded. It does imply that it will likely have to submit a bid for a guaranteed power output lower than its installed capacity , limited to the volume it can actually sustain under that standard.
Thus, a 100 MW renewable energy plant would not necessarily compete for its full 100 MW; it could compete only for the fraction it can prove as firm. Power plants capable of maintaining more stable production, on the other hand, could commit a larger proportion of their capacity.
“Renewables will have less opportunity to participate, or with less capacity, because they can’t provide reliable power all the time,” the specialist explained. In that scenario, he believes it’s likely that thermal power plants and other sources capable of guaranteeing 24-hour supply will be better positioned to compete for those 150 MW.
Fewer contractual pathways than in PEG-5
The difference doesn't end with the firmness percentage. PEG-5 contemplated three contractual modalities: difference with load curve, power purchase option, and generated energy .
The latter was particularly useful for variable resources because it allowed for contracting production without requiring a firm, efficient supply. In PEG-6 it disappears, leaving only the first two alternatives, both linked to power backup.
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The previous process even contemplated up to an additional 150 MW of installed capacity through Generated Energy , precisely for resources without firm capacity. Now there is a block of the same size, but subject to the general 90% standard, so the similarity in volume masks a very different contractual logic.
The outlook also changes for existing power plants. PEG-5 allowed contracts of up to five years for these types of facilities. The current Terms of Reference set a maximum of 15 years for the total requirement and do not include a specific distinction for Block B. For a solar or wind plant that can only commit a portion of its firm production, this could mean tying up that volume for a considerably longer period.
The batteries also don't find a direct connection.
One of the points Grotewold particularly emphasizes is the treatment of hybrid systems. PEG-5 allowed for new renewables combined with storage. PEG-6 modifies that approach for the main 450 MW.
Even if a solar-battery project could technically demonstrate performance equivalent to that required, Block A remains closed because the entry condition is not based solely on operational performance: the resolution directly identifies natural gas and geothermal as eligible resources .
According to the lawyer, the issue here is more one of design than legality. His analysis maintains that the CNEE has the authority to prioritize reliability and establish a high standard, but notes that it has not created an alternative pathway for hybrid configurations with storage to demonstrate the same performance and compete. Modifying this possibility would require adjusting the Terms of Reference themselves, not just the future Bidding Documents.
Gas and geothermal energy, facing a 450 MW window
The change simultaneously creates a concrete opportunity for two sectors. “I believe that thermal power plants will benefit the most here, in PEG-6,” Grotewold stated. He also anticipated that the market reaction could be geared towards the development of new gas-fired power plants.
Geothermal energy also has a reserved space, although its development presents other difficulties. The specialist noted that Guatemala has potential and identified fields, but the exploration necessary to confirm the resource involves high costs and risks prior to construction.
The Terms of Reference themselves acknowledge this peculiarity by allowing a geothermal project to terminate the contract by mutual agreement, without being considered in breach, if exploration within two years of its signing determines that the resource is not viable. Grotewold argues, however, that this timeframe might be too short compared to the periods recognized in other markets for completing studies and exploratory drilling.
The shift towards firm energy technologies also occurs within a context where the 2026-2050 Indicative Expansion Plan for the Generation System considers a diversified portfolio of candidate projects, including solar, solar with batteries, wind, natural gas, hydroelectricity, and geothermal. This official instrument seeks to simultaneously address demand growth, security of supply, and the sustainability of the system.
The final terms have not yet been agreed upon.
The PEG-6 photograph is not yet complete. Resolution CNEE-323-2026 contains the guidelines that EEGSA, DEOCSA, and DEORSA must follow to jointly prepare the Bidding Documents. The distributors were given 20 days from the date of notification to submit them to the Commission for approval.
Therefore, economic requirements, guarantees, and other details that will determine the final level of barriers for bidders are still pending. “At the moment, we only have the terms of reference. The specific requirements will be included in the bidding documents,” Grotewold clarified.
However, the main technological framework is already in place. According to the specialist, the two signals that companies should pay closest attention to are clear: “the technological constraints in Block A,” limited to gas and geothermal energy, and “the barrier being imposed on renewables” in the 150 MW segment through the 90% firmness requirement.
The result is a PEG-6 that does not eliminate renewable sources from the process, but it does considerably reduce the area in which they can compete compared to the previous tender .