Guatemala built 454 kilometers of transmission lines over the past five years , a period marked by increased consumption and the addition of new generation capacity. However, this volume represents only a fraction of the infrastructure the system will require over the next decade and a half.
Available estimates indicate that the country will need approximately 5,000 kilometers of new power lines and around 200 substations over the next 15 years , a period during which demand could double. This challenge equates to maintaining a rate of roughly 330 kilometers of network and more than 13 substations per year .
In light of that objective, the 454 kilometers completed in five years represent an average of approximately 91 kilometers per year , so Guatemala should more than triple that pace and maintain it for a prolonged period to meet projected needs.
The scale of the program also involves crossing at least three national administrations, hundreds of municipalities and multiple communities , along with permitting processes, easements and territorial agreements that may extend the implementation schedules.
Added to this complexity is the need to mobilize private capital willing to assume long investment horizons , in projects whose periods between awarding, permits, construction and entry into operation can span several years.
The history of the Transportation System Expansion Plan 1 (PET-1) reflects some of these difficulties. Awarded in 2010, the project encompassed 783 kilometers of lines and 22 substations , and 16 years later it still faces unresolved issues.
The next phase of transmission must also be developed while Guatemala accelerates the contracting of new generation capacity and faces growing demand. Grid availability thus becomes one of the main constraints for realizing the planned electrical capacity.
PET-3 gives way to PET-4 with a network under higher pressure
The latest expansion phase also raised concerns for the market. The PET-3 tender failed in 2025 due to a lack of technical support , forcing authorities to review the process and prepare a new plan to expand the infrastructure.
During November of that year, a relaunch of transmission initiatives was anticipated, and subsequently, the preparation of PET-4 gained momentum, identified as one of the priority processes to support the growth of the generating fleet.
The urgency increased after PEG-5 , which awarded 1258 MW distributed across 57 projects . Approximately 73% of the capacity corresponded to renewable technologies , with a significant presence of hybrid solar installations with battery storage systems.
The process concluded with an average single-unit price of $101 per MWh , below the current contract prices reported for the market. In addition to adding new capacity, PEG-5 modified the profile of planned investments in Guatemala by consolidating batteries as part of the supply strategy.
Solar projects combined with storage were able to meet power and delivery requirements in specific time slots , a feature that also changed the relative competitiveness between technologies.
Despite maintaining globally competitive levelized generation costs , wind power lost ground to solar proposals with BESS in PEG-5. The contract design prioritized the ability to deliver firm energy at specific times, a condition that photovoltaic systems with batteries were able to offer with greater predictability.
The result reinforced a change in investment criteria: storage acquired greater weight than the cost of generation considered in isolation , driving hybrid configurations within the Guatemalan market.
Among the PEG-5 awardees are Tuncaj, linked to Grupo Kin; Consorcio Magdaler, from Magdalena; Anacapri, from Grupo Onyx; Consorcio Grupo Jaguar; Dirección Empresarial de Energía; OXEC II; Agen; Consorcio San Diego; ECOENER Sol del Sur; GENEPAL; Ingenio La Unión; COX Energy; ECOENER Sol de Oriente and ECOSOL .
The list also includes Energía Limpia de Guatemala, FOTON, Generadora del Norte, Hidroeléctrica El Cóbano, Hidroeléctrica Río La Pasión, HidroXacbal, Instituto Nacional de Electrificación, Mecanismos de Energía, Regional Energética, RENACE, Samdro Group Corp, Santo Espíritu, Sol Central, SUPRA ENERGY and Xolhuitz Providencia .
The solar energy growth associated with these investments simultaneously increases pressure on available transmission capacity . Shared market analyses warn that insufficient expansion could lead to operational constraints and limit the utilization of new renewable assets.
Within that scenario, the risk was even raised that up to 800 MW of solar power could be compromised if the transport system does not grow in time , which reinforces the direct relationship between the generation agenda and the execution of the upcoming network works.
Guatemala is also among the Central American markets that have made the most rapid progress in incorporating battery energy storage systems (BESS) within long-term competitive processes.
While other countries in the region still rely on specific regulations or ancillary service markets to make batteries viable, PEG-5 showed that storage can compete within contracts intended to cover firm power needs .
Open Tender 1-2026, PEG-6 and PET-4 mark the next stage
The infrastructure expansion coincides with a new bidding cycle. The National Electric Energy Commission (CNEE) has authorized the terms of Open Tender 1-2026 , intended to cover approximately 300 MW of remaining capacity after PEG-5 , in addition to new needs related to increased consumption.
The process will allow the main distributors to contract power and energy with supply from August 2026 , incorporating into the market the remainder that was not awarded in the previous tender.
In parallel, during the Future Energy Summit Guatemala , the authorities anticipated the preparation of PEG-6 , aimed at contracting approximately another 300 MW of firm power within the medium and long-term supply strategy.
At that same meeting, the intention to launch a new transmission tender after the failure of PET-3 was also confirmed, incorporating the lessons learned from the previous process.
The CNEE identified PET-4 as a priority component to enable the incorporation of the new generation and avoid bottlenecks , within a system whose challenge now combines renewable expansion, transport capacity, firm power and operational safety.
Planning must coordinate firm generation, transmission infrastructure, storage, and reliability , while demand continues to grow and awarded projects progress.
This timeline is also unfolding amidst political changes. The departure of the then Minister of Energy and Mines, Víctor Hugo Ventura , one of the officials who had promoted PEG-6 and PET-4, raised questions about the speed of execution of both processes.
His replacement by Erwin Barrios was interpreted within the market as a sign of continuity in the energy agenda, while subsequent moves in the Vice Ministry of Energy maintained the focus on technical capacity and the execution of pending tenders.
The time frame takes on particular importance given the general elections scheduled for 2027. Authorities will need to move forward with processes whose implementation horizons extend beyond a single government term and offer sufficient predictability to developers and investors.
The regulation adds another variable. The entry into force of a new Anti-Money Laundering Law requires the electricity market to review and update the contractual models commonly used in tenders.
One of the risks identified is that PEG-6 may proceed with contracts that have not been fully adapted to the new framework , which could introduce legal uncertainty for developers, funders, and participants in the process.
Tensions are also emerging at the municipal level. Some municipalities have begun requiring licenses or fees for solar projects without clear support in national legislation , a situation that could affect investments from PEG-5.
These requirements can increase costs and extend deadlines , while deepening the need for greater coordination between the central government, municipal administrations, and developers.
This institutional fragmentation is especially relevant for transmission. A single line can cross different jurisdictions, communities, and territories , requiring the coordination of permits and agreements under authorities that do not necessarily operate under the same structure.
For this reason, the approximately 5,000 kilometers of cable and 200 new substations required over the next 15 years present a challenge that goes beyond any single tender. The scale of the project necessitates sustained planning, construction, and public oversight across multiple administrations.
Among the gaps identified is precisely the lack of a unified public space that allows us to know how many kilometers are planned, which ones have been assigned, which sections remain stopped and what are the causes of the delays .
A common information base would allow the State, municipalities, communities and investors to work on the same diagnosis , within an expansion that will require institutional continuity and a pace of execution much higher than that recorded in recent years.
Guatemala has already made progress with 454 kilometers of cable built in five years , but projected needs indicate that the next stage will be on a different scale. While PEG-5 accelerates the integration of renewables and batteries, PET-4, PEG-6, and new contracting processes will be crucial to ensuring that the infrastructure keeps pace with the simultaneous growth of generation and demand .