Mexico's Energy Secretariat (SENER) proposed maintaining the requirement for the acquisition of Clean Energy Certificates (CEL) at 13.9% for the obligation periods of 2025 and 2026.
The draft agreement, dated July 30, 2026 , establishes the same percentage for both fiscal years. Its entry into force will be subject to publication in the Official Gazette of the Federation. Furthermore, it stipulates that the requirements for 2027, 2028, and 2029 must be determined through a subsequent instrument, based on the methodology issued by the relevant agency.
Alberto Campos, manager at Trio, says the decision avoids an immediate adjustment on the obligated participants, although it leaves pending the main signal that the market demands: the trajectory that the instrument will follow from 2027.
“As professionals in the energy sector, it is essential to read between the lines. What does this decision really tell us about the direction of the market?” the executive asked.
From their perspective, the measure provides a pragmatic solution for the short term, at a time when suppliers have already structured their commercial and financial commitments based on the known level of obligation.
“With August 2026 already upon us, a surprise increase in the quota would have injected unnecessary stress into the market,” Campos noted. The late publication of the 2025 requirement reduced the window of opportunity to acquire additional certificates or modify previously signed contracts.
One of the main effects of upholding the obligation relates to PPAs .
“Maintaining the target protects the financial structure of previously signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and avoids short-term operational conflicts that would be difficult for suppliers to absorb in a market that is short of renewable energy,” added the manager at Trio.
The agreement also seeks to provide legal and regulatory certainty to the obligated parties . SENER maintains in the document that the regulatory, technical, and operational conditions that supported the previous determination have changed, but considers it appropriate to maintain the current percentage to facilitate compliance with the energy transition objectives.
“The 2025 requirement is finally formalized. With this, legal compliance is given to a level of demand that the industry had already internalized and anticipated due to the lack of a prior official publication,” the executive stated.
It is worth remembering that industry actors proposed raising the obligation above 20% , and with analyses that considered a possible adjustment to 18% to contribute to market balance.
According to Campos, the fact that 13.9% has remained unchanged in recent years reflects a "stagnation in the growth of mandatory demand for renewable energy."
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According to official government data, Mexico granted 34.3 million Clean Energy Certificates (CELs) in 2025, representing a 22% increase compared to the 28.1 million granted in 2024.
“The current administration is issuing new regulations designed to trigger the fast-track development of projects that increase the renewable share in the national energy matrix,” the executive highlighted.
The SENER document links this requirement to the objectives of Mexican energy planning. Among these, it mentions the addition of 22,000 MW of electricity generation capacity by 2030 , as outlined in the Mexico Plan, and the various official targets for increasing the share of clean energy sources during this decade.
The 2025-2030 Energy Sector Program sets a target of 38% for clean technologies to generate electricity by 2030. Meanwhile, the Electricity Sector Development Plan projects a 35% share, with the possibility of also approaching 38%.
These goals place the debate on CELs within a broader discussion: how to align the obligation to purchase certificates with the expected expansion of clean generation , the reliability of the National Electric System, and the actual supply and demand conditions of the Wholesale Electricity Market.
The market is awaiting the trajectory from 2027 onwards.
The 2025 and 2026 targets resolve some of the uncertainty, but industry experts point out that they don't yet provide a medium-term compliance curve. For developers, financiers, suppliers, and large consumers, understanding this trend will be crucial when projecting revenues, compliance costs, and future procurement needs.
The second transitional article of the bill stipulates that SENER must publish the percentages for 2027, 2028, and 2029. However, the document does not specify the levels that will be applied nor does it set a specific date for their publication.
“The true market signal the sector is waiting for is still pending,” Campos emphasized. The next decision will reveal whether the government will use the certificates as an additional incentive to expand clean energy generation or maintain a conservative approach.
Regulatory visibility is especially relevant for projects requiring long-term contracts and predictability regarding their future cash flows. An increasing obligation could strengthen demand for CELs, while maintaining the current percentage would prolong a limited signal for new investments in this market.
In that sense, the challenge will be to combine the protection of existing commitments with a roadmap that supports the official energy transition goals.
“Only with that medium-term visibility will we be able to assess the real impact and certainty that will be given to future investments in renewable energy within the Wholesale Electricity Market,” concluded the manager at Trio.