The total system requirement is projected to reach 4780.6 MW in 2026 , compared to an effective supply of 4947.8 MW. Coverage will depend on the timely addition of power plants, batteries, networks, and natural gas infrastructure.
The Dominican Republic's National Interconnected Electric System (SENI) would have sufficient capacity to meet peak demand and operational reserves between 2026 and 2030, although the first year of the period will concentrate the greatest risk for planning.
“ 2026 presents the narrowest margin: 167.2 MW, equivalent to 3.5% of the total requirement ,” said Andrés Manzueta Cepeda , CEO of Conexyner, SRL .
This slack would leave the system exposed to project delays, thermal unavailability, fuel supply restrictions, or transmission limitations —factors capable of quickly absorbing the available margin.
The projection set a peak demand of 3880 MW for 2026 , which would increase to 4745 MW in 2030. This represents a cumulative growth of 865 MW or 22.3% over the analyzed period.
In parallel, annual energy withdrawals would increase from 25,076 GWh to 29,999 GWh , a rise of 4,923 GWh or 19.6%. The methodology applied a constant annual growth rate of 4.58% between 2026 and 2030.
Recent peak demand trends already show a structural acceleration. Between 2020 and 2024, peak demand increased at an average rate of 231 MW per year , almost three times the 77 MW per year recorded between 2011 and 2019.
The largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2023, when peak demand rose by 391 MW, or 13.5% . Thus, the SENI's peak demand practically doubled between 2011 and 2024, increasing from 1821 MW to 3500 MW.
The SENI will need up to 5845 MW of reserves in 2030
To determine the necessary capacity, Conexyner differentiated between the maximum net demand and the gross generation required. The latter incorporates transmission losses and auxiliary power consumption at the plants .
“ Gross generation includes losses and auxiliary consumption; the operating reserve is added separately to cover contingencies and regulation ,” Manzueta explained.
Under this methodology, the gross generation required would increase from 4346 MW in 2026 to 5314 MW in 2030. The difference with respect to the net peak demand would remain close to 12% throughout the period.
To that volume would be added an operating reserve of 10%, associated with primary and secondary frequency regulation. The total requirement would reach 4780.6 MW in 2026 , 5046.8 MW in 2027, and 5845.4 MW in 2030.
The estimated effective supply for 2026 would amount to 4947.8 MW , made up of 4647.8 MW thermal and an assumption of 300 MW hydroelectric manageable during the hour of maximum demand.
The calculation did not attribute firm power to solar or wind generation to cover the peak, because their production cannot be guaranteed to coincide with the time of highest consumption.
“ For the sufficiency balance, a contribution of 0 MW is assigned to solar and wind generation ,” the study indicated.
This criterion allows comparing the requirement with manageable, firm or stored resources that can respond during the critical interval, without ignoring the energy contribution of renewable technologies during other hours.
Under these conditions, the margin would advance to 471 MW in 2027. From 2028 it would exceed 1000 MW, reach 1338.6 MW in 2029 and close 2030 at 1222.4 MW.
The reduction between 2029 and 2030, despite the addition of storage capacity, would be due to the growth in demand and the absence of new thermal additions during the last year of the timeframe.
One of the decisive variables will be the addition of 600 MW and 2400 MWh of BESS storage . The scenario includes four generic blocks of 150 MW and 600 MWh, with a nominal duration of four hours.
The systems would be brought online progressively: the first in 2027, the second in 2028, the third in 2029 and the last in 2030. The cumulative capacity would reach 150 MW, 300 MW, 450 MW and 600 MW, respectively.
The effective contribution of the batteries will depend on their operating condition during peak demand, not just their installed capacity. The model assumed that each unit will be fully charged, available at nominal power, and connected to a point in the grid that allows for the utilization of its full discharge capacity.
“ To cover the peak, the BESS must be pre-charged, available, and without network restrictions that limit its discharge ,” Manzueta warned.
With the 600 MW added, the effective supply would reach 7067.8 MW in 2030 , compared to a requirement of 5845.4 MW. The resulting margin would be 1222.4 MW, equivalent to 20.9%.
“ Without storage, the margin would be approximately 622.4 MW, equivalent to 10.6%; therefore, the BESS scenario practically doubles the available capacity buffer at the peak of 2030 ,” the executive highlighted.
Load scheduling will have to prevent energy arbitrage from compromising the power needed to meet peak demand, provide reserves, or participate in ancillary services.
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The Dominican Republic has already begun incorporating this technology into its competitive bidding processes. The EDES-LPI-01-2025 tender required energy storage as a mandatory condition for new renewable energy projects.
The process received bids for 1655 MWp against a demand of 600 MW , although it ultimately awarded 325.69 MW of new capacity. The projects must incorporate BESS equivalent to 50% of the contracted power.
Following that award, the electricity distribution companies moved forward with signing the power purchase agreements. In addition, the authorities are preparing a tender for the remaining 300 MW and another process to add 200 MW of storage capacity at operational solar parks .
The announcements made during the Future Energy Summit Caribbean also anticipated new calls for bids to incorporate more than 800 MWh in the short term , while the country projects around 2000 MW of BESS over the next few years.
The transmission will define the available capacity.
The construction of power plants and batteries does not, in itself, guarantee that the power will reach consumption centers. The transmission network must be expanded at the same rate as the new supply.
The challenge will be greater in areas with a high concentration of solar and wind projects. Growing installed capacity can become energy constraints if lines and substations lack sufficient operating space.
Conexyner's calculation assumed that thermal power plants and BESS would come online on schedule and without transmission restrictions . Consequently, the results represent a simplified power assessment and not a probabilistic reliability study.
The Dominican Electricity Transmission Company initiated an institutional transformation accompanied by new regulations to facilitate the integration of energy storage. Simultaneously, the government launched a call for expressions of interest to develop up to 1200 MWh of energy storage facilities with private investment .
The modernization of the grid gained importance after the nationwide blackout in the National Interconnected System (SENI) caused by a failure at Punta Catalina. The event reopened the discussion on resilience, diversification of the energy mix, and recovery capacity in the face of contingencies.
In this context, batteries can provide frequency regulation, rapid response, energy displacement, and operational support . Their contribution will depend on their connection in strategic locations and receiving compensation commensurate with the services provided.
The next regulatory step will be to recognize these benefits beyond arbitrage. Developers, manufacturers, and financial institutions believe this will be crucial for sustaining new investments.
Renewable energy disposal could reach 19.2% by 2030
While dispatchable capacity grows, the expansion of solar and wind power poses another challenge. Non-conventional renewable energy capacity is projected to increase from 1999.2 MW in 2025 to 3825.95 MW in 2030 .
Solar capacity would reach 3242.75 MW, while wind power would reach 583.2 MW. In total, the country would add an additional 1826.75 MW during the period.
The biggest leap would occur in 2030, with 958.2 MW of new solar and wind power. This expansion would coincide with a substantial increase in projected grid inflows.
The baseline scenario estimated 1346 GWh of renewable energy injected in 2030 , equivalent to 19.2% of solar and wind power production that year.
Between 2026 and 2030, cumulative waste discharge would reach 3403 GWh. The percentage would start at 11% in 2026, drop to 8.5% in 2028 and 2029, and then rise sharply during the last year.
That result has not yet been recalculated with the 600 MW and 2400 MWh of batteries considered in the sufficiency analysis.
“ The effect of the new BESS must be evaluated through a specific chronological simulation ,” Manzueta remarked.
The modeling must consider loading strategy, efficiency, load status, duration, network constraints, and reserve provisioning. Otherwise, there is a risk of assigning two simultaneous services to the same capacity.
Some of the surplus energy could be shifted towards peak demand hours, although the outcome will depend on the power and duration of the systems, as well as the capacity reserved for other services.
Under proper operation, storage could reduce some of the dumping, shift renewable production to the night and decrease thermal dispatch during certain periods.
The study concluded that the SENI would have sufficient capacity to cover gross generation and a 10% reserve throughout the 2026-2030 period.
Coverage will be conditional upon the new power plants coming online as planned, the BESS being loaded and available, the hydroelectric contribution reaching 300 MW, and the grid allowing the power to be transported.
“ The future sufficiency of the SENI will depend on the coordinated progress of generation, transmission, storage, operating reserves, and natural gas infrastructure ,” concluded the CEO of Conexyner.
The sectoral discussion will shift from the announced nominal capacity to the MW actually available during peak hours , under real operating conditions, fuel and grid access.
The Dominican Republic is projected to reach 2030 with a 20.9% margin of surplus, but it must first navigate 2026 with only 3.5% of that surplus. This will be the immediate test for the expansion of the National Interconnected System (SENI) and the coordination between demand, generation, transmission, storage, and reserves.