The Dominican Republic has surpassed 4000 MW of electricity demand for the first time , a threshold that requires accelerating the incorporation of new firm capacity, renewables, BESS systems and transmission networks.
The peak of 4077.97 MW recorded in the National Interconnected Electric System (SENI) reflects a structural transformation of consumption, although high temperatures determined the exact moment of the record.
Demand rose from 2,680 MW in 2019 to over 4,000 MW in 2026 , equivalent to a 52% increase in six years. According to Fares Jamatte , Regulatory Manager at AES Dominicana , this growth far exceeds the impact of a single heat wave.
“I would think it is mainly structural, with a specific push from the heat wave that determined the timing of this peak,” Jamatte told Energía Estratégica .
The executive estimated that the figure might not yet represent the highest value of the year . High temperatures simultaneously increase the use of cooling equipment, but this effect occurs on a base of consumption that is already steadily increasing.
“Without that expanding structural base, a single hot day wouldn't be enough for a historical record,” said the Regulatory Manager of AES Dominicana.
This development aligns with the government's goal of doubling the size of the Dominican economy by 2036 , driven by sectors such as tourism, free trade zones, logistics, industry, and technology. The growth of these activities will require an increasingly larger, more stable, and more competitive electricity supply.
Official planning already includes Energas 4, the conversion of SIBA Energy to combined cycle, and the future commissioning of Manzanillo Power Land , along with new renewable energy projects supported by batteries. This response demonstrates that the system is preparing to meet a permanently higher level of consumption.
“That’s planning for a higher demand floor, not for an isolated peak,” Jamatte emphasized.
The costs reveal the strain on the system.
The increase in demand is already reflected in the economic operation of the National Interconnected System (SENI). Peak power increased from 2890.9 MW in 2022 to 3618.4 MW in 2025, representing an additional 727.5 MW in three years and an average of approximately 242 MW per year.
The marginal cost rose from US$93.2/MWh in December 2025 to US$155.5/MWh in June 2026 , an increase of 67% in six months. During that period, the average temperature increased from 25°C to 28°C and showed an approximate correlation of 0.87 with cost trends.
Between April and June 2026, prices were between US$28 and US$49/MWh higher than in the same months of 2025 , even with similar temperatures. This difference indicates that the consumption base increased faster than the available efficient supply.
When demand increases, the dispatch system must incorporate progressively more expensive units to meet peak demand. In the Dominican system, this process often ends with fuel oil-fired power plants, which then increasingly determine the marginal price.
“ When demand rises, the system has to move up the merit order towards increasingly expensive units to cover the peak — usually fuel oil — ,” the executive explained.
During the first half of 2026, fuel oil accounted for 14.8% of the 12,863 GWh supplied to the National Interconnected System (SENI) , while natural gas contributed 39.6%. This exposure keeps a significant portion of the system linked to the volatility of international fuel markets.
The technology that delivers the last MWh needed to meet demand determines the marginal cost for each period. Therefore, increased use of fuel oil-fired power plants can rapidly raise the price of electricity, even though these plants do not represent the largest share of the energy mix.
“ The jump in June wasn’t due to ‘gas prices getting higher,’ it was that fuel oil started setting the margin more frequently right in the month of greatest stress on the system ,” Jamatte explained.
The availability of efficient power plants also affects the outcome. During the first half of May, the marginal cost averaged US$154/MWh , while in the second half it fell to US$133/MWh.
The fluctuation coincided with maintenance at one of the SENI's main coal-fired power plants. Its unavailability forced the use of more expensive generation until the unit returned to operation.
The intraday spread reinforces the economic signal. In June, the cost approached US$95/MWh during solar midday and exceeded US$200/MWh around 11 p.m., when photovoltaic production decreases and demand remains high.
The price gap of over US$100/MWh between daylight hours and nighttime presents a concrete opportunity for storage systems, capable of shifting energy from lower-cost periods to times of higher demand.
The first BESS tender fell short of market demand.
The EDES-LPI-01-2025 tender confirmed the incorporation of energy storage as a mandatory requirement for new renewable energy projects in the Dominican Republic. The process sought to contract 600 MW and received bids for 1,655 MWp, a response that demonstrated strong interest from developers.
The Electricity Distribution Companies finally awarded 325.69 MW of new renewable capacity , accompanied by BESS systems equivalent to 50% of the contracted power.
The remaining volume went unassigned because the proposals exceeded the established economic parameters. The oversupply, however, showed that the main limitation was not the availability of projects, but rather the scope and configuration of the competitive process.
“ The 325.69 MW is a real step forward, but a fraction of that total effort ,” warned the Regulatory Manager of AES Dominicana.
The Ministry of Energy and Mines estimates that the system will need an additional 250 to 400 MW of BESS by 2028 to ensure stability and improve the use of renewable generation.
Added to this need is a new tender for 300 MW of generation and a specific call to incorporate 200 MW of batteries in existing solar parks.
This latter process would allow for the integration of storage into operational assets, reduce spills, and strengthen delivery during nighttime hours, without relying exclusively on new greenfield developments.
Jamatte believes that batteries should maintain and expand their role in upcoming tenders . The technology is beginning to acquire its own value within the system, beyond its association with a photovoltaic power plant.
“ There is no shortage of projects with storage; there is plenty of room for the regulator to have no fear of a lack of interested parties ,” the executive stated.
The awarded prices, ranging from 10.60 to 10.90 cents per kWh , also support the scheme's competitiveness. The bids were below the average purchase cost reported by the interviewee, which was 15 to 16 cents, and below the 20 to 28 cents associated with fuel oil-based generation.
The cost of batteries today is about a third of what it was four years ago, the executive explained. This reduction allows for raising technical requirements and contracting for larger volumes without necessarily harming competition.
The National Energy Commission also estimated that the country will require around US$5 billion over the next four years to achieve a 30% renewable energy share by 2030.
Regulatory adjustments for the next stage
The first tender also provided lessons for the design of future calls for bids. The "up to 600 MW" scheme underestimated market demand and the speed of expansion of electricity consumption.
Nearly 900 MW of technically feasible projects were excluded due to price , while authorities are already preparing a supplementary tender for 300 MW. The proximity of these two processes confirms that the original volume proved insufficient to meet the needs of the National Interconnected System (SENI).
One of the aspects to be reviewed is the allocation mechanism. The formula progressively reduced the maximum effective capacity that could be allocated as the bid price approached the maximum allowable cost.
The design resulted in high technical availability with limited final contracting , leaving over 1000 MW of qualified projects without a PPA. At least 248 MW would have been excluded due to a difference of 0.85 cents per kWh.
The second point relates to the incentives of Law 57-07 . Under the current resolutions, a BESS system accesses these benefits when it remains closely linked to a renewable energy park and charges exclusively from that facility.
The requirement restricts the possibility of absorbing electricity from the grid and providing additional services, such as arbitrage, frequency regulation, power backup, congestion relief, or stability support.
As storage penetration increases, the regulatory framework must recognize and remunerate the various functions of batteries , without limiting their role to backing up a specific photovoltaic plant.
During the Future Energy Summit Caribbean, authorities anticipated more than 800 MWh of storage in upcoming competitive processes and a projection of close to 2000 MW of BESS during the following years.
Developers, manufacturers, and financial institutions agreed that the next stage must create commercial mechanisms to monetize systemic battery services. This definition will be crucial for diversifying business models and sustaining new investments.
Reliability: storage alone is not enough
Demand growth is progressing alongside a broader debate about the resilience of the National Interconnected System (SENI). The blackout caused by a failure at Punta Catalina once again highlighted the need to diversify the energy mix, modernize transmission, and reduce the risk of nationwide outages.
Jamatte identified four complementary fronts: network expansion, energy efficiency, price signals, and active demand management .
The incorporation of new generation must be accompanied by greater transport capacity and a meshed network , with a greater number of interconnections and alternative routes between nodes.
“ Without that expansion, any new MW of generation loses some of its value ,” the executive noted.
A more robust infrastructure would allow the evacuation of production from generation points to the main consumption centers, increase redundancy, and more accurately manage variations in renewable power plants.
The executive clarified that the current outages are not always due to transmission congestion . In some cases, they occur due to operational safety requirements, frequency regulation, and inertia.
The answer requires combining storage with a more resilient network topology, flexible generation, and resources capable of providing stability.
Energy efficiency is the second key issue, especially in air conditioning. The simultaneous use of air conditioning units during heat waves amplifies peak demand and necessitates having capacity that can only be used for a few hours a year.
“ The cheapest energy is always the energy that is not consumed ,” Jamatte summarized.
More stringent standards for refrigeration equipment, technology replacement programs, and rational use campaigns would allow for moderating peak demand and reducing the need to always respond with new supply.
The third key element is to recover economic indicators that reflect the true cost of supply. According to data provided by the interviewee, the tariff has remained frozen since June 2022 , while the Electricity Tariff Stabilization Fund accumulated US$313.2 million between January and April 2026.
System losses, meanwhile, stand at 37.1% and limit the financial capacity of distributors to invest in networks, digitization and storage.
When the tariff does not reflect the cost of supply, the incentives to reduce or shift consumption during the most expensive periods decrease.
The fourth component is demand response. These programs could incentivize large industrial and commercial consumers to reduce or shift their load during peak nighttime hours .
“ If storage shifts cheap energy to the peak, demand management directly reduces the size of that peak ,” explained the Regulatory Manager of AES Dominicana.
The tool can provide flexibility at a lower cost than building new capacity and function as a direct complement to BESS systems.
A 2027 adjusted and conditioned by the schedules
The short-term outlook anticipates increased operational demands before a possible moderation. The Coordinating Body's 2027-2030 Long-Term Program projects demand growth of 8.53% in 2027 and an annual average of 5.07% between 2028 and 2030.
Under these forecasts, peak demand would increase from approximately 3950 MW in 2027 to 4580 MW in 2030 .
The tightest period would be March 2027, when the reserve margin would fall to 18.09% . Between 2028 and 2030, the indicator would improve to levels above 22% and could reach 27%.
“ The baseline scenario is one of increasing tension before it begins to ease, not an immediate improvement ,” Jamatte anticipated.
The Coordinating Body does not project any unsupplied energy in the analyzed scenarios. This conclusion depends on the generation and storage projects coming online on schedule .
The schedule includes an initial block of 460 MW in April 2027 , another 400 MW towards the end of that year, and an additional 400 MW in February 2028.
The timely commissioning of this capacity would allow for a reduction in the use of more expensive power plants. Combined cycle gas turbines would increase their share of generation from 36.6% in 2027 to 47.6% in 2030 , with a smaller marginal share of coal and fuel oil.
This change would moderate costs starting in 2028, although the official scenario remains contingent on meeting deadlines. Any delay would prolong the use of more expensive units and maintain economic and operational pressure on the National Interconnected System (SENI).
Experience from previous projects, including the first Manzanillo tender, showed that technical schedules do not always translate linearly into available capacity.
“ Each month of delay in bringing new capacity online will prolong the operational stress on the system and force us to live with high generation costs for longer than projected ,” Jamatte concluded.
The peak capacity of 4077.97 MW marks a new starting point for the Dominican electricity sector. Expansion no longer depends solely on adding capacity, but rather on coordinating firm generation, renewables, batteries, transmission, efficiency, and flexible demand with the speed necessary to keep pace with the country's economic growth.