China drove the historic drop in solar module prices and is now once again setting the course for the photovoltaic industry. This was the analysis of Alberto Cuter , Vice President of Jinko Solar , during FES Guatemala, where he reviewed the technological and economic evolution of the sector and explained how the changes taking place in the Asian giant are beginning to redefine the global market after more than a decade of ever-decreasing costs.
To illustrate the industry's evolution, Cuter explained that panel efficiency today reaches 25%, compared to 10% fifteen years ago. Furthermore, costs have fallen to historically low levels.
“ This was thanks to all the investment made by Chinese manufacturers ,” the executive stated.
He explained that manufacturers managed to introduce increasingly efficient products while maintaining a sustained trend of cost reduction.
The result was a price drop that completely changed the competitiveness of photovoltaic technology.
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“ In 2010, the price was around $1.50, and last year we ended up at 10 cents ,” he said.
The expansion of Chinese production capacity was one of the key factors behind this evolution. However, the same phenomenon that lowered module costs also generated significant imbalances within the industry. In recent years, overcapacity and competitive pressure have eroded the profitability of many manufacturers, in a context marked by recurring losses and plants operating below their potential.
Meanwhile, the adjustments underway in China's automotive sector are beginning to reshape global supply and demand dynamics. The market is experiencing a gradual correction after years of overproduction, while various analysts anticipate a price readjustment following the most aggressive period of competition among manufacturers.
In this scenario, Jinko Solar maintains its global leadership in photovoltaic module production capacity and shipments , consolidating itself as one of the main benchmarks of an industry seeking to regain financial equilibrium without losing technological competitiveness.
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Cuter considered that the markets that are currently accelerating their renewable deployment have an additional advantage: they can take advantage of both the advances achieved by the industry and the lessons learned in countries with greater photovoltaic maturity.
“This is what has helped develop photovoltaic solar energy worldwide, and especially now here as well, because those who made it to the end will benefit from all the lessons learned,” he said.
However, according to the vice president of Jinko Solar, the next challenge for the sector will no longer be exclusively linked to cost reduction or efficiency improvements.
“Two weeks ago I was at a solar conference for Europe and there we were talking about changing the paradigm: no longer thinking about producing energy, but about managing energy,” he said.
This reflection stems from situations already affecting markets with high renewable energy penetration. Chile was one of the first cases in the region to register significant levels of curtailment, a problem that later began to be observed in Brazil as well and that today forms part of the energy debate in countries like Spain and Italy.
“ If there is no storage capacity to help you manage energy, it’s going to be a very complicated situation ,” he warned.
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As he explained, the conversation about efficiency or degradation loses relevance when the energy generated cannot be used due to limitations in the electrical infrastructure.
The executive illustrated this situation with a frequent inquiry from developers regarding marginal improvements in the annual degradation of the modules. In his view, the real risk arises when grid constraints prevent the monetization of the energy produced.
“I can have the most efficient photovoltaic plant, but if the transmission network doesn't help me, or the distributor cuts off my injection because the network collapses, I'm going to lose a lot of money,” he remarked.
In this context, storage is beginning to gain prominence within renewable development strategies.
“ The suggestion is that we have to change the previous model, which was only to build photovoltaic plants; this no longer works, it has to be photovoltaic plant plus storage ,” he said.
The trend is already being observed in various international markets, where batteries are ceasing to be an optional complement and are becoming an increasingly important tool for maximizing revenue, reducing waste, and providing flexibility to electrical systems.
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Meanwhile, the technological race continues to advance. Currently, N-Type TOPCon technology holds approximately 85% of the global market, while Back Contact solutions are beginning to gain ground. In contrast, heterojunctions have failed to live up to initial expectations due to their higher production costs.
The main manufacturers are already working on the next generation of modules, based on tandem architectures that combine silicon and perovskite.
“We already have a cell in the laboratory where we have achieved an efficiency of 35% with a perovskite tandem,” Cuter revealed.
The challenge now is to scale up those results to an industrial level while maintaining competitive costs and degradation levels similar to those offered by current technologies.
“ I think that in 3 or 4 years we will reach this type of product on a massive scale and with consolidation in the market ,” he projected.
As he explained, this evolution could allow commercial modules to go from efficiencies close to 25% to ranges close to 30%.
Sustainability is also part of the company's agenda. In response to some criticism related to panel manufacturing, Cuter emphasized that the industry is moving towards increasingly cleaner processes with lower associated emissions.
“ At Jinko, we already have 10 GW vertically integrated where we use only 100% renewable energy ,” he stated.
Beyond technological advances, the executive concluded that Latin America has the opportunity to leverage its accumulated experience and move towards a new stage of solar development with a broader perspective than simply considering the cost of the module.
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