“The permits already granted exceed the most ambitious deployment estimates for the coming years.” This isn’t the opinion of a business association or a concerned investor: it ’s admitted in the draft legislation with which the government seeks to regulate the data center boom in Spain .
The warning comes when much of that capacity already has reserved space on the network and before many projects have even managed to connect.
And the gap is significant. In recent weeks, the government has fast-tracked a proposal that recognizes over 6 GW of access capacity granted on the transmission network and another 6 GW or so in distribution since 2020. In total, some 12 GW already have reserved space on the network, while the market still has to demonstrate how much of that volume will actually be built.
The sticking point? It arises precisely in those developments that already have permits but are not yet connected to the internet. The proposal stipulates that they too must comply with the new requirements and grants them six months from the date the regulation comes into effect to demonstrate this. If they fail to do so, their permits will expire and the deposited guarantees may be executed.
For Javier Lázaro , technical and regulatory director of APPA Renovables, this is one of the most delicate points of the design proposed by the Executive.
“All these investments were made prior to this draft proposal. We understand that there is also retroactivity,” he points out in a conversation with Energía Estratégica .
As he explains, until March a specific energy sustainability scheme for data centers had not been proposed , nor was it known how the obligations would ultimately be structured.
“All those plans, in our view and opinion, should not be included in this Royal Decree. The decree comes after all these investments and many of the access and connection points have already been granted,” he argues.
The issue is also beginning to shift from the regulatory sphere to business decisions. In the Spanish market, there are already reports of investors reviewing or withdrawing projects due to the uncertainty generated by the new framework, in a sector that was expected to generate around €66.9 billion by 2030 .
This risk is not limited to projects that might be canceled. Lázaro warns that some investment could simply shift to neighboring markets if Spain ends up imposing more restrictive conditions than other European countries. France and Portugal thus appear as natural destinations for developments seeking competitive energy, grid access, and a more predictable regulatory framework , which would turn the debate into a direct battle for capital that, until now, has viewed Spain as one of the continent's most attractive markets.
The challenge for the Government is to filter a pipeline that has grown far beyond the demand that is expected to materialize, without halting viable projects that have already completed part of the administrative process.
In fact, the draft allows holders with pending applications or granted permits but still without connection to waive their rights for a period of six months without losing the deposited guarantees .
The 80% hourly rate opens another front
The change isn't limited to permits. One of the requirements that generates the most tension is the so-called time correlation .
The text requires that, until Spain achieves a renewable share of over 90% in its electricity generation, data centers guarantee that at least 80% of the energy they consume each hour is backed by renewable generation produced during that same hour .
Coverage can be achieved through self-consumption or renewable electricity purchase contracts, but another condition is added: the facilities used to prove that energy must comply with the principle of additionality.
Specifically, the plants linked to the supply must have obtained their commissioning certificate no more than 18 months before the data center becomes operational or before the first use of that energy .
“The problem is that this would lead us to significantly oversize the projects dedicated to supplying these data centers. From our point of view, it doesn't make sense because we would be inefficient,” Lázaro explains.
The association proposes that, at least during an initial stage, the obligation could be calculated on an annual basis and not through a strict hour-by-hour marriage.
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This argument intersects with another characteristic of the Spanish electricity system. According to Lázaro, Spain is currently wasting around 20-25% of its potential renewable energy generation , while the new regulations could incentivize the construction of additional capacity exclusively intended to support this consumption.
“What we need is a better match between supply and demand. But if demand now comes and forces us to further oversize the system by adding much more generation and much more supply, estimates indicate that emissions will increase,” he warns.
Wind power emerges as a critical element
The time correlation also introduces a technological challenge that goes beyond the total volume of installed renewables.
A data center maintains a relatively stable consumption profile around the clock, while Spain's renewable energy expansion remains heavily concentrated in photovoltaics. To meet this demand for more hours of the day, the complementarity of wind power and energy storage is becoming increasingly important.
“One of the fundamental technologies that a data center would need is wind power. If wind power, to date, has not exceeded 200 MW of new capacity compared to the 5,000 MW we have of photovoltaics, it is almost complicated or impossible for a data center to have that hourly correlation of 80%,” he explains.
The draft agreement is not merely a declarative obligation. Failure to comply will result in significant surcharges on tolls and system fees.
When the associated new renewable generation covers less than 20% of annual consumption, the surcharge reaches 500% . The penalty drops to 400% between 20% and 40%, to 300% between 40% and 60%, and to 100% when coverage is between 60% and 80%.
In the hourly correlation, surcharges initially range between 10% and 50% , depending on the proportion of hours not fulfilled, and increase by ten percentage points for each additional consecutive month in that situation.
Now, the maximum consequence could be even greater.
Maintaining an additional renewable generation of less than 60% of consumption for five consecutive years, or failing to comply with the time correlation for at least 20% of the hours, may initiate the procedure to lose access and connection permits.
“We need to see how we can establish a transition during the first few years of these data centers' lives. They will be the first ones interested in having 80%, 90%, or 100% renewable energy because it will be the most competitive,” Lázaro maintains.
And he concludes: “We can’t kill the sector before it even begins.”
The underlying debate: who controls the internet
The discussion comes at a time when electrical capacity has become one of the most contested resources due to new industrial projects, storage, hydrogen, electrification, and large consumers.
The Government justifies the intervention precisely on the grounds that transport and distribution networks constitute a scarce resource and considers it necessary to introduce conditions to decide which demands can access them.
APPA, however, avoids framing the debate as a race in which one technology must displace another.
“We don’t see that one demand has to be prioritized over another,” Lázaro states.
According to the executive, the answer must involve accelerating the development of electrical infrastructure and aligning its expansion with the volume of generation and consumption projected for the coming years.
“What doesn’t make sense is that we only advance in the theoretical part, on paper, and that this doesn’t lead to the projects actually arriving and being developed. We can’t paralyze it,” he concludes.
With the procedure being expedited, the window for modifying the text will be small. APPA believes it is possible that, if similar timelines to other recent regulatory processes are followed, the new Royal Decree could be approved before the end of 2026 .
The question is no longer just how many data centers Spain wants to attract. With 12 GW of bandwidth granted and billions of euros tied to the pipeline, the focus now shifts to how many will be able to adapt to the new conditions and how many will decide to proceed before connecting to the network .