ANCAP began to put numbers to a question that will be decisive for the future of green hydrogen applied to heavy transport in Uruguay : what conditions are necessary for a fuel cell truck to be able to compete economically with a diesel one.
The initial results show that a significant gap still exists.
During a presentation at the XII LATAM Renewables Congress , ANCAP's Hydrogen Manager, Juan Tomasini , explained that the scenarios analyzed by the company do not yet show a positive Net Present Value (NPV) and that the scale of the operation will be crucial to improving competitiveness against diesel.
“As we increase the number of trucks, that parity improves, but the gap still remains. We can end up being 50% above the total cost of ownership,” Tomasini noted.
The calculation performed by ANCAP considers vehicles that travel approximately 500 kilometers daily and measures the TCO —total cost of ownership— in dollars per kilometer and ton transported, incorporating both investment costs and operating expenses, fuel and the benefits expected through COMAP.
The conclusion begins to highlight the key variables that will determine whether the technology can scale in Uruguay: number of trucks, infrastructure utilization, and electricity costs .
The electricity tariff enters into the equation
ANCAP's analysis shows that reducing the cost of the energy used by the electrolyzer could substantially alter the outcome.
The state-owned company evaluated different scenarios using UTE's Large Consumer 3 tariff as a reference and observed that, when simulating lower values, the gap with respect to diesel decreases.
Tomasini indicated that, with a rate approximately 50% lower than the studied reference , the numbers improve significantly and there are even scenarios in which an operation of around eight trucks could approach parity with diesel .
It's not just about getting cheaper electricity.
The second factor is scale. The greater the utilization of the plant and the refueling station, the lower the unit cost of the hydrogen produced.
This logic aligns with the international assessment. The International Energy Agency warns that the levelized cost of hydrogen refueling stations for heavy-duty transport is highly sensitive to their utilization rate: according to its Global EV Outlook 2025, increasing the utilization of a hydrogen refueling station from 30% to 80% can reduce the infrastructure repayment component of the hydrogen cost by approximately 60%.
This scale problem led ANCAP to revise one of the initial concepts of the pilot project.
The company had initially considered incorporating two of its own trucks for internal movements between plants , but concluded that this demand would not be sufficient to achieve adequate use of the infrastructure.
“Two trucks are really not enough. We’re going to have to increase demand,” Tomasini acknowledged.
From buying trucks to seeking private demand
Therefore, the project has now entered a stage where the challenge is no longer just about developing the plant but about finding hydrogen consumers .
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ANCAP launched a consultation process aimed at transport companies, logistics operators, cargo generators, and potential users of the future station. The call for participation was officially announced by the company at the end of July.
The idea is to open a Data Room and exchange information with interested companies to learn about their specific operations: routes, daily mileage, vehicle characteristics, and transported cargo.
These parameters will allow the TCO to be adjusted to real-world cases and determine where a competitive model might first appear.
The facility being studied by ANCAP will have an approximate scale of 1 MW, PEM electrolysis technology, and a supply of 350 bar . It would be located in the Capurro industrial park. The intention is for the station to be open to third parties.
But the economic discussion is beginning to displace the equipment as the main question of the project.
Is it time to discuss incentives?
The analysis also opens up an energy policy discussion that has been much less developed in Uruguay until now: what treatment should hydrogen-powered heavy mobility receive during its early stages .
Tomasini recalled the mechanisms that accompanied the incorporation of electric vehicles in recent years and raised the possibility of beginning to analyze specific instruments for this technology.
“Perhaps it’s time to start discussing, specifically regarding hydrogen trucks, how to achieve the parity we were talking about,” he said.
For now, ANCAP is primarily focusing on the benefits associated with COMAP , while studying what other conditions could reduce the economic gap with diesel.
The discussion also comes at a time when Uruguay is close to adding another concrete experience of hydrogen in heavy transport.
The private Kahirós project, located in Fray Bentos, includes a 2 MW PEM electrolyzer powered by a 4.8 MW photovoltaic plant and an initial fleet of six Hyundai Xcient trucks for forestry transport. Its developers anticipate the start of operations in the second half of 2026 .
This scenario marks a difference from the discussion that Uruguay began years ago with the first demonstration projects.
The question no longer seems to be only whether the country can produce green hydrogen and use it to power trucks, but what scale, electricity price and incentive scheme will allow it to do so without the economic gap with diesel ultimately hindering its expansion .
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Strategic Energy will be present at Intersolar
LATAM is going through a key moment for the expansion of renewable energies, driven by new regulatory challenges, the growth of electricity demand and the development of storage.
In this context, Energía Estratégica will be present at two of the leading solar industry events in Latin America: The Smarter E South America, from August 25 to 27 in São Paulo, Brazil, and Intersolar Mexico, from September 1 to 3 in Mexico City . From both events, the publication will provide special coverage with exclusive interviews, regulatory analysis, and the key developments that will shape the future of regional markets.