Wind energy maintains one of the most competitive generation costs on the international market, with values between USD 37 and USD 86/MWh. However, Guatemala has not added any new wind farms for years, and the latest major tender, PEG-5, once again left the technology virtually uncompetitive.
According to Sebastián Murillo, Business & Strategic Development Analyst at Improvement & Progress, SA , wind energy still has a place within the Guatemalan electrical system, although under a different logic than the one that drove the country's first developments.
“I believe it has a window of growth in diversifying its matrix rather than in technological competitiveness,” he argues.
The apparent contradiction reflects a deeper shift within the electricity system. While historically the price of energy was a key decision-making factor, today attributes such as firm capacity, scheduling capabilities, and operational flexibility are gaining importance—areas where the combination of solar energy and storage has managed to establish a competitive advantage.
The latest evidence of the sector's declining prominence appeared in the PEG-5. While solar projects with BESS offered 1242 MW , wind energy barely reached 31.5 MW , reflecting a trend that has been consolidating for several years.
For Murillo, the turning point occurred after PEG-3, when the drop in solar costs changed the economic rules of the renewable market.
“The story stopped with the three parks contracted under PEG-3. After that, solar prices dropped, and Guatemalan wind power simply couldn't keep up,” he says.
The lack of new developments also highlights additional difficulties related to project implementation. One of the most representative cases is the Comapa Wind Project, identified in 2018, which has yet to move forward with construction.
“The fact that it hasn’t been developed after eight years also shows the lack of support in the procedures,” he adds.
The competitive advantage of these two technologies cannot be explained solely by the levelized cost of energy. According to Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy 2025 report, onshore wind energy has costs between USD 37 and USD 86/MWh , while photovoltaic systems with batteries range from USD 50 to USD 131/MWh , considering investment, operation, maintenance, and financing over the entire lifespan of the projects.
The differentiating factor emerges when the system demands reliability and responsiveness. The PEG-5 was designed to contract for guaranteed power and firm energy capable of meeting specific demand needs, a scheme that favors technologies with greater control over when they deliver energy to the grid.
“Solar+BESS can schedule nighttime dispatch with high certainty because it charges the batteries during the day with cheap surplus energy,” Murillo explains.
The ability to store energy during peak irradiation hours and dispatch it later at times required by the system became a decisive advantage over other renewable sources.
In contrast, wind power production depends on the availability of the resource and offers lower levels of operational predictability.
“Wind power simply doesn’t have that control, and adding storage isn’t worthwhile because it would only increase costs. Solar power is much more economically viable in that scenario,” says Murillo.
The magnitude of the change was reflected in the PEG-5 allocation itself. Nearly 73% of the allocated capacity corresponded to renewable sources, and the combination of solar plus batteries captured approximately 47% of the total allocated , consolidating a structural transformation in system planning.
“That’s not a trend, it’s the architecture of the system that is being redefined,” Murillo says.
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Even so, the specialist believes that there are specific conditions that could allow the return of new wind farms during the second half of the decade.
One of the main challenges is related to the quality of the information available about the resource. The lack of modern measurement campaigns and advanced analytical tools limits the possibility of structuring projects capable of accessing funding.
“Without a serious wind measurement campaign and elevations of 100–120 meters in areas of the country, there is no viable project; no financier will sign with the MEM map from 2011,” he warns.
Therefore, it raises the need to develop a national platform that integrates information on energy resources, transmission infrastructure, demand and existing projects.
“Guatemala needs the equivalent of what Brazil has with its platforms, a dynamic visualization system at the national level where any developer can see the resource, the transmission network, the departmental demand and the existing projects,” he says.
Commercial conditions represent another obstacle to the sector's expansion. According to the analyst, mechanisms focused on firm power structurally limit the participation of wind power generation, making it necessary to enable complementary alternatives.
“The firm power tender excludes wind power by design,” he argues.
Among the options mentioned are the creation of frameworks that facilitate bilateral energy purchase and sale contracts with large consumers or modalities specifically focused on energy.
“A framework for bilateral PPAs with large users or an energy-only modality recognized by the CNEE is needed to build system resilience. Without that, there is no entry,” he states.
Transmission infrastructure completes the set of determining factors. Many of the best wind resources identified in Guatemala are located far from major consumption centers and the existing grids for transmitting energy.
In this context, the implementation of PET-3 takes on special significance. The project includes more than 440 km of transmission lines and 14 new substations , works that could enable the use of areas that currently lack competitive access to the grid.
“The best wind farm sites in the country are in remote areas with no economic access to the grid. Without transmission, the resource is worthless,” Murillo warns.
Beyond current market conditions, the expert believes that the growth in electricity demand will ultimately drive a broader diversification of the energy mix. In this context, the complementarity between wind power and hydroelectric generation emerges as one of the main opportunities.
“The wind in Guatemala is stronger during the dry season, just when the rain falls,” he points out.
From that perspective, wind energy would not necessarily regain the central role it had during the early years of renewable expansion, but it could become a complementary technology within an increasingly diversified energy mix.
“Not acting as the main focus, but having an important role in being complementary to the renewable energy matrix,” he concludes.
Although the PEG-5 program solidified the leadership of solar with storage, the future of wind energy in Guatemala will depend less on price competition and more on the country's ability to overcome barriers related to information, regulation, and transmission. If these conditions evolve over the next few years, the technology could still find room to develop further before 2030.
